UNF poll reveals slight lead for Obama in Florida

Published On: Oct 10 2012 12:48:54 PM EDT   Updated On: Oct 10 2012 01:00:16 PM EDT

A new University of North Florida poll reveals President Barack Obama has a 4-percentage point lead over Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent.

The key to the Obama lead is support from African-American voters (96 percent to 3 percent) and Hispanic voters (59 percent to 33 percent), according to the poll. Also of interest, 37 percent of likely voters "haven't heard enough about" Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan to have an opinion of him, which highlights the importance of his performance in the vice presidential debate Thursday night.

DOCUMENT: UNF presidential poll results

The survey was conducted through the use of Computer-assisted telephone interviewing at a 27-station polling laboratory at UNF. A sample of the polling universe was selected through the use of Random digit dialing methodology. An additional cellphone sample is used to increase representation.

To ensure geographic diversity, the state was pre-weighted into seven strata. The survey was conducted in Spanish for those respondents who wished to complete the survey in Spanish. Gender, age and education are weighted to statistics from the census for the state of Florida.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 1 and Tuesday, and includes 790 residents of the state of Florida. Margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 3.49 percent. About 180 UNF political science students participated in the data collection.

Among other statewide findings:

  • Obama has a 52 percent job-approval rating among likely voters in Florida.
  • Thirty-five percent of likely Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Ryan.
  • When asked which presidential candidate they trust more when it comes to strengthening Medicare, 51 percent of likely Florida voters chose Obama and 37 percent chose Romney.
  • When asked which presidential candidate they trust more when it comes to strengthening Florida's economy, 44 percent of likely Florida voters chose Romney and 44 percent chose Obama.


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