11:15 a.m. UPDATE: The Weather Authority has declared Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning a Weather Authority Alert Day in preparation of heavy rainfall in excess of 1 to 4 inches.
Strong thunderstorms may accompany the heavy rainfall on Friday but those storms should remain mostly below severe limits. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has not issued a slight risk but will continue to monitor the situation.
The National Weather Service out of Tallahassee has placed their entire area under a Flood Watch. At this time, the Jacksonville National Weather Service is holding off but will issue a watch for our viewing area by this evening.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed most of our area in a hatched area of excessive rainfall. This means there is an enhanced risk that some areas could receive 4 inches of rain or more through Saturday morning.
Again, the Weather Authority has declared Friday afternoon through Saturday morning a Weather Authority Alert Day. We'll continue to update you as necessary on this developing weather situation.
Northeast winds up to 30mph have been setting the stage for a serious rain event!
Today, Thursday, keep the jacket/sweater/pull over for warmth as chilly breezy conditions will persist throughout the afternoon. Highs will remain in the 60s despite the "normal" average high temperature for this time of year being 80°. Breezy light rain showers are also likely to make conditions feel more wintery than spring-like as well.
The "big event" begins on Friday, mainly after the lunch hour. Rains will become widespread throughout Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Rainfall rates may only be in the tenth to quarter inch per hour range, but once we go through 6-12 hours of this, many locations will have had 2-3", or more of rain!
Flooding along McCoys Creek, likely.
Black Creek in the Middleburg area could also see rapidly rising, possibly flooding conditions by Saturday night. It takes about 24 hours after the last of the rains for Black Creek to crest.
Driving at times, won't be worth it, especially Friday night into early Saturday morning. Stay tune! Forecast models are seemingly slowing the system down with each model update and that suggests a very slow clearing, starting on Easter Sunday, not Saturday.